March 8th 2025
Emma De Fino
Giulia Nannini
The Economic Paradox: Italy's position as both a G7 economy and one of Europe's most climate-vulnerable countries.
Tension between immediate economic pressures and long-term climate imperatives.
Italy’s position as the world’s tenth-largest economy and the fourth in Europe with a €2 trillion GDP in 2023 presents a complex paradox under right-wing governance: maintaining G7 economic power while facing acute climate vulnerability. The political leadership frames climate vulnerability primarily through national sovereignty and economic costs of green policies rather than economic necessity and a chance for economic growth.
The right’s approach to climate-economic challenges reveals itself in crisis response. While Mediterranean coastal areas face increasingly extreme rainfall patterns – studies show more intense but decreased average precipitation, heightening both drought and flood risks – the government’s actions remain focused on short-term national interests. After the devastating 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods causing €8.5 billion in damages to industry, private enterprises, infrastructure, and the agricultural sector, Meloni’s government focused on emergency response rather than systemic adaptation for a long-term resilience plan. The administration’s emphasis on ‘sovereign’ solutions over EU-coordinated climate strategy was evident in their €2 billion emergency decree for reconstruction rather than implementing it with long-term resilience measures.
This pattern of prioritizing national autonomy and immediate “patch” measures over international coordination and national efforts for long-term resilience persists despite Italy ranking as one of Europe’s most economically vulnerable country to climate disasters. The right’s framing of environmental protection as a matter of ‘homeland defense’ rather than global cooperation shows in policy: emergency response funds flow readily while systematic climate adaptation investments lag behind. Moreover, the topic has often been over politicised and accused of being militarised by the left, when climate issues should be everything, but a trait of party politics.
Tourism and agriculture, comprising 13% and 19% of GDP respectively, illustrate the limitations of this sovereignty-focused approach. Italy’s wine industry, producing 40% of global output, has seen production fall 17% since 2017. Agricultural output dropped 3.9% in 2023 alone. Yet right-wing parties continue calling for EU Green Deal revisions, favoring “less ideological green policies to protect industrial sectors” over comprehensive climate response. This approach aims to prioritise local and immediate economic concerns aiming at protecting fossil fuels industries.
The north-south divide further exposes the weaknesses of nationalist climate strategy. Southern regions, with per capita GDP almost half of northern levels, rely heavily on climate-sensitive sectors and face greater exposure to high temperatures, wildfires, and droughts. According to Il Sole 24 Ore, “Italy is the worst country in Europe for economic losses caused by climate change” – a reality that challenges the right’s assertion that national sovereignty can effectively address climate threats.
Recent events like floods in the Emilia Romagna and Marche regions (2022-2023) have increased public awareness, yet the political response remains anchored in nationalism. Prime Minister Meloni claims “There is nothing more ‘right-wing’ than ecology. The right loves the environment because it loves the land, the identity, the homeland.” This rhetoric transforms environmental imperatives into questions of national identity, even as projected 0.31% GDP losses by 2050 threaten Italy’s G7 status. Still, her party, Fratelli d’Italia has failed to address specifically any objective to meet the EU 2030 emissions reduction target in its manifesto, making vague statements like “updating and meeting international commitments to tackle climate change”.
The European Green Deal provides frameworks and funding for climate transition while fostering industrial competitiveness against Chinese and American technological innovation.
However, Italy’s right-wing government increasingly frames climate action through sovereignty rather than economic necessity. This approach creates a paradox where protecting national sovereignty may ultimately undermine economic sovereignty through increased climate vulnerability.
The right-wing framing poses the energy transition as “either an obstacle or as an option to be exploited if in line with national interests,” ultimately prioritizing national self-determination over environmental imperatives. This political tension creates a dangerous disconnect between climate realities and policy responses, threatening both environmental and economic resilience.
Similarly, looking at other European states experiencing a right-wing shift like Germany, it is expected a so-called “more pragmatic market-led approach to climate action”. During the past few years, the German energy policy has been sped up significantly, but Merz’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU) will place less emphasis on climate and energy policy and put economic growth at the core of its mission. It seems paradoxical after what has been argued so far. Meltz is likely to proceed with decoupling the climate and economic ministries without seeing climate change policy as necessary to prevent economic decline. While the CDU argues in its manifesto that it sets to reach net zero by 2045, it voted on amending the ban on combustion engines and intends to slow down decarbonisation because “climate protection needs a strong economy”. Wasn’t it the other way around?
Italy’s position exemplifies how right-wing politics can constrain effective climate action in developed economies, even as economic risks mount. The data suggests that framing climate policy through national sovereignty rather than international cooperation threatens both environmental and economic resilience.
Without a fundamental shift in political approach, Italy risks not only its environmental stability but also its standing among G7 economies.
The country’s experience may preview the economic costs when major economies prioritize nationalist climate politics over coordinated international action in an increasingly climate-vulnerable world. Rather than viewing green policies as economic constraints, Italy could leverage climate action as a driver of growth and innovation. International climate cooperation, instead of threatening sovereignty, offers paths to economic leadership. By embracing science-based policy and global partnerships, Italy could transform climate challenges into competitive advantages – developing sustainable technologies, attracting green investment, and strengthening its position in the global economy. This approach would reframe climate transition from burden to opportunity, where international cooperation becomes a tool for maintaining G7 status through green growth.